Consider this scene very carefully. Jesus is with all the disciples for the last time for what is commonly referred to as the last supper. Jesus tells them many things, but let’s focus on two of them and consider the odds of both things happening.
But first, let’s consider why He said them. The “why” is simple, and He tells them, He is telling them what is going to happen so that they will believe He is who He said He is:
John 13:19 I am telling you this now, before it takes place, that when it does take place you may believe that I am He.
DO YOU SEE HOW HEAVY THIS IS!?!?!
If just ONE thing Jesus said would happen to Him DID NOT happen to Him, then Jesus CANNNOT be trusted for ANYTHING!! But, if everything did happen, it should have its intended result, that you would believe He is who He said He is. He said He came from Heaven, He said He was with God the Father in the beginning of creation, He said He is the Son of God, He said He is the Son of Man referred to by the prophet Daniel, He said He is the Messiah that the Word of God said was coming and the Jews were waiting for, He said He is the Savior of the world, and many other “things” we will discuss in future posts.
Back to the scene. The group just finished eating, Jesus washes their feet, and then He begins to tell them how the next days are going to play out. He first tells them that one of the twelve are going to betray Him. Mind you, Judas has already begun his plan to betray Jesus.
John 13:21 After saying these things, Jesus was troubled in His spirit, and testified, “Truly, truly, I say to you, one of you will betray Me.”
At this point Judas could have thought, “oh no, He is on to me, I am not going to go through with it.” But Judas does not abandon the plan, he goes through with it. Naturally all the other disciples want to know who the betrayer is, so Jesus tells John, who is near Him:
John 13:26 Jesus answered, “It is he to whom I will give this morsel of bread when I have dipped it.” So when He had dipped the morsel, he gave it to Judas, the son of Simon Iscariot.
Before Jesus identifies the betrayer by handing the morsel He said:
John 13:18 I am not speaking of all of you; I know whom I have chosen. But the Scripture will be fulfilled, ‘He who ate My bread has lifted his heel against Me.’
All 4 of the Gospel writers reference this exchange, and they all identify Judas as the betrayer. We know from the rest of the events that Judas did go through with the betrayal; but, if that is not heavy enough, consider that this was foretold, prophesied, a minimum of 300 years before hand:
Psalm 41:9 Even My close friend in whom I trusted, who ate My bread, has lifted his heel against Me.
After Judas was given the morsel, Jesus continues to tell the disciples how this is going to play out.
In the exchange Peter insists that he will follow Jesus, even to death. This brings us to the next event with astronomical odds:
John 13:37-38 Peter said to Him, “Lord, why can I not follow You now? I will lay down my life for You.” Jesus answered, “Will you lay down your life for Me? Truly, truly, I say to you, the rooster will not crow till you have denied Me three times.
As we know from the events the night of Jesus’ arrest, Peter was called out 3 times by various people as being part of Jesus’ group and Peter denied it all 3 times, and then the rooster crowed.
Consider this; if Judas changes his mind, if the Pharisees don’t believe Judas, if Peter does follow Jesus unto death, if Peter is not overcome by fear after the first or second time and does not deny Jesus the 2nd or 3rd time, if the rooster crows any time before the 3rd time….if any one of these things, or a multitude of other things that would make Jesus’ “prediction” the slightest bit off, we can’t trust Jesus for anything.
The reality is, the two events of Judas and Peter played out EXACTLY as Jesus said they would, and this is just two of several “predictions” not only from Jesus in those last days, but also prophesies about Jesus from hundreds of years before.
People often say, “why doesn’t God make Himself more easily known?” It CANNOT get much easier!!! He told us hundreds of years before Jesus was born how His redemptive plan would play out so we would not miss the Messiah. The Messiah did many mighty works, including raising a dead man back to life, healing a blind man who was blind from birth, and He told the disciples of all that would happen to Him so that they would believe that Jesus is the Messiah.
In future posts we are going to look at other prophesies and their fulfillment. But for now, let’s take a look at Statistic 101.
If you have a deck of cards that has been thoroughly shuffled and face down, what is the probability of the first card flipped being what you guess? Answer: 1 in 52, since there are 52 cards. Now, what is the probability of the 2nd card flipped being the one you guess? Answer 1 in 51, since there are only 51 cards left (assuming you knew the one card that was removed from the deck). This is where the number starts getting huge; what is the probability of you guessing the first 2 cards both correct? Answer: 52 x 51 = 2,652. There is a 1 in 2,652 chance of you guessing them both correct! If you tried to guess a 3rd card, it would be 52 x 51 x 50 = 132,600 – you would have a 1 in 132,600 chance of guessing all three correctly! Most people would not do the math of probability when asked what the chances are, they would simply say, “it’s impossible”.
Considering the simple math of probabilities, reason in your own mind, what are the odds that Jesus would have a close friend, one that has witnessed His miracles and teachings for 3 years, betray Him? Now, consider the probability that Jesus predicts the betrayal, and speaks to the betrayer openly about it and the betrayer still follows through. In addition, this betrayal, right down to the morsel of bread, is predicted hundreds of years before. Now consider the math on a seemingly devoted follower not only denying Jesus once, twice, but three times, and not only does he deny Him three times, but he is told he will do it, and still does, even though he is adamant that he won’t. What are the chances? The number is astronomical!!
